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During his tenure as general manager of the St. Louis Cardinals, Branch Rickey had a foot pedal installed under his desk which, when pressed, sounded like a ringing telephone. Players visiting the Mahatma to request a raise would be interrupted by what appeared to be a call to Rickey from the manager of a St. Louis farm team, urging the callup of someone who -- surprise, surprise -- just happened to play the same position as the man sitting across the desk from Branch. The supplicant, suddenly fearful of losing his job, invariably settled for whatever Rickey deigned to offer.
No such payroll management tricks are available to fantasy baseball poolsters. We operate in an open market, one that dictates a player is worth whatever the next bidder is willing to spend. We also function under a salary cap that ensures over-spending for one player results in penury for others. That's why owners caught up in Draft Day bidding frenzies almost always suffer discrepancies between the cost and value of talent across their rosters, while those who resist the madness reap balanced rosters characteristic of winning teams.
A budget, not blind luck, is essential to withstand Draft Day madness. It's step two in the calculated approach to building a winner, right after you've determined the level of performance needed to win your league (see last week's column): targets in place, you must figure out where you're going to get those numbers, and for how much.
Invest in extreme performances
Start by going for broke. Nothing helps a fantasy team more than the stud who puts up the numbers of two, three or four entry-level players. Pedro Martinez draws a lot of action not because he's good, but because he's so much better than the competition; his numbers let you carry the baggage of a couple of also-rans without too much impact on your overall performance. Ditto for Kevin Brown and Randy Johnson among NL hurlers, and for A-Rod, Jeff Bagwell and Chipper Jones among the hitters.
There are enough superstar players to go around most fantasy leagues a couple of times, provided money and intelligence are distributed fairly evenly. Every team's budget can afford at least one marquee player, and most try to squeeze two onto a roster. Trouble begins to rear its head with threesomes: it takes so many dollars to acquire that much top-end talent that you'll be chasing ghosts in the bargain bin before the draft is half-over, much to the delight of your fellow owners. Rule of thumb? Limit spending to no more than $100 for your top three players, less if you can.
One of two schools of thought should guide the paring of your short list of marquee players. The first holds that the object of the exercise is to buy the best player available, be it the hitter with the highest total of counters to drive your offense or the pitchers with the best performance over the most innings. The second says it's far better to focus on supreme excellence at positions traditionally bereft of talent, specifically shortstop and catcher and number one starter, because it's so much easier to buy adequate numbers with entry-level players at deeper positions like outfield and first base.
Leave those thoughts aside for the moment, though, while we walk through a fundamental budget. Once you've seen the basic framework for allocating most dollars, you can move the numbers around to suit your particular wants, needs and resources, tailored to the peculiarities of your league.
Begin at the beginning. The standard fantasy baseball budget -- $260 for nine pitchers and 14 fielders -- works out to $11 and change per body on your roster. Although scoring is divided equally between pitching and hitting, almost nobody splits the budget equally. Most authorities recommend spending no less than $85 for a pitching staff, and no more than $100. That allows a range of $160-$175 for hitters.
Assume $90 for nine pitchers. A good rule of thumb is to spend half -- $45 -- on your top two pitchers, usually an ace starter and a star closer. Alternatively, plan to spend two-thirds of the budget -- $60 -- on your top three arms, usually two strong starters and a closer. True, there won't be a lot of money left for the rest of your staff -- $45 and $30 for seven and six pitchers, respectively -- but the premium talent you've purchased will let you chance a couple of bargain talents, and good scouting should do the rest. You should figure on $6-$9 for the bottom third of your staff -- three pitchers for $2-$3 each -- and scale the rest of your bids accordingly.
That leaves $170 for hitters. As a general guideline, allocate half the budget -- $85 -- for the top third of your lineup, and one-third -- $55 -- for key supplementary contributors. The remaining $30, roughly one-fifth, goes to the dregs of your roster, depending on how it is structured.
One good way to start is to allocate cash by position:
Outfielders --These are generally the five-category talents of fantasy baseball. The best outfielders help you across the board, and even the mediocre ones are better than most of the talents at other positions. If you include your utility player among the top third of your roster -- and you should -- he will almost certainly be an outfielder, so figure $85 for six bodies. I like to allocate about one-third of this position's budget to my best fly-chaser and scale the rest 20-15-10-5-5. If the pool is deep, figure on a couple of cheapies at the end and bump up the top bids accordingly.
Corners -- These are fantasy baseball's three- and four-category players (in 5x5 leagues) -- supreme sources of taters and RBIs and runs, especially at first base. The pool is deep, though, so no need to go much beyond $25-$30 for your best corner unless it's Todd Helton or Jeff Bagwell, and up to $20 for your second-best. What's left from your $55 budget should buy a third corner who provides reasonable production in two or more categories.
Middle Infield -- Aside from the AL's Big Three of A-Rod, Nomar and Derek and all-around batsman Jeff Kent in the NL, the vast majority of midfielders are two-dimensional players at best, good for a smattering of runs and stolen bases and little else. If members of that Fabulous Foursome are out of your price range, focus on help in specific areas that are hard to hard to find elsewhere, put most of your money on one key player, and try to cap total spending at $20-$25.
Catchers -- The dregs of fantasy baseball, catchers do little more than occupy roster space. Unless Ivan Rodriguez, Jason Kendall or Mike Piazza fall into your lap, figure $10 for both, but try to get them for less and shift the savings to a more productive position.
All of the above goes out the window if you absolutely must have A-Rod or Todd Helton, of course. Money for those big ticket purchases must come from somewhere, and you may as well figure out now where you want the roster wasteland to be, rather than let it be determined for you by the flow of the draft. Start by figuring on a number of $1 and $2 players at your lesser offensive positions (catcher, middle infielder, fifth outfielder) and at the back end of the pitching rotation, and work the money upwards.
No matter which route you choose, remember that while budgets are essential, they're only as good as your eye for talent. We'll help you scout players by position, beginning next week.
Fantasy Baseball Index, March 23, 2001
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