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"The general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought."
--Sun Tzu, The Art of War
In the final analysis, your fantasy baseball season comes down to this: no matter how much research, number-crunching and strategizing you've done through the winter and spring to plot your roster for the coming six months, your fate ultimately rests on one variable. Fail on Draft Day, and you are toast.
Draft Day is about preparation, yes, but it's also a test of nerve, wit, timing and stealth, not to mention intelligence, duplicity and grace under pressure. All the color-coded, cross-indexed reference material in the world is only so much dust in the wind if you're unable to translate the information into action -- often on the fly -- and mould a coherent whole from the many, many parts available in the talent pool.
Teams acquire players by one of two methods on Draft Day, and each has a special set of variables to consider. In leagues with a pure draft -- that is, by selection in a pre-determined order -- the key factors are your place in the pecking order, and your estimation of the ranking your fellow owners will assign to any given player. Those in leagues that acquire players by open bid at auction must chiefly concern themselves with money, its relative value, and how to best manage their budgets in a volatile market.
Straight drafts are relatively simple and will not be discussed further here, except to note that success hinges, as it does in auction leagues, on your ability to collect players who are superior performers, especially at positions not noted for depth of talent. Be the first on your block to select power-hitting middle infielders, catchers who steal bases and workhorse pitchers, and you will be well positioned to capture the flag.
Considerations and tactics are much more complex in auction leagues, especially those that allow some players to be protected from season to season. Two crucial questions you must answer before the auction opens are:
How much money is chasing how much talent?
If it's a standard, from-scratch league, the answer is usually $260 per team or an average of $11.30 for each of 23 players, with most teams splitting their budgets $170-$90 for players and pitchers, respectively. In keeper leagues, deduct the salaries of protected players from the overall total money available, figure out how much is left to be spent, and divide it by the number of positions remaining to be filled.
Where will the money be spent?
It matters if everyone needs a shortstop, or no one does. From-scratch leagues make all players available for purchase each year, with every team buying the same number of players at each position. In keeper leagues, availability and need can fluctuate wildly from year to year, and your strategies are largely determined by the rules of supply and demand. At minimum, you must determine how many players are needed at each position, and the total dollars your league is likely to spend for all players purchased at each position.
Answering the above two questions should prepare you to accurately balance your needs, expectations and spending plans for Draft Day. After examining the available talent in the pool, the paths the league's money is most likely to follow, and the tendencies of your fellow owners -- whether they over-value rookies and devalue closers, for example -- you should be prepared to establish final, realistic price points for your draft day budget.
As noted in earlier columns, your path to this point included exercises to set targets for the level of performance required to finish in the top three in all or most of the scoring categories in your league. It also included a budgeting processes that apportioned your dollars to roster positions according to how well -- and how little -- certain types of players are likely to help you reach your goals. On the eve of draft day, when the depth of the talent pool is firmly established, you must revisit those processes and readjust your spending plans to the reality of what's going to be available, for how much, and to whom.
Hint: now you should turn your earlier budget on its head by allocating money by amounts, not by position. For example, if you have $90 to spend for 10 players, you might distribute it 21-16-12-10-9-8-7-5-1-1. Keeping your performance targets in mind, assign the highest dollar values to the areas of your greatest need, then match the remaining dollar amounts to positions where they're likely to have the greatest buying power. For example, if you require two catchers, the pool is deep and few are needed by other teams, you should assign both your $1 buys to backstops.
As the auction proceeds, always focus your attention on the amount of money available to be spent, and the depth and degree of talent remaining in the pool, both overall and by position. Be ready to act quickly, position yourself to buy players at par or less than actual value -- never more -- and always be open to change your strategy in the wink of an eye.
Be fast, be firm, be flexible. And give 'em hell.
Fantasy Baseball Index, April 14, 2001
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