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"Who broke you in? Who taught you to scout?"
"God. He was my teacher. He gave me the grace to see the diamond in the raw. To see the talents is a much a gift as to have the talents. I do not say as great a gift, but is as much a gift."
-- Los Angeles Dodgers scout Regie Otero, responding to author Kevin Kerrane's question, in Dollar Sign On The Muscle
If scouting ballplayers is a blessedly tough business for the Regie Oteros of the world, it is doubly so for fantasy baseball poolsters. Whereas Regie and his ilk collect their information and do most of their data processing with their eyes - in person, at a real live ball game - the poolster largely synthesizes and analyzes great chunks of agate type far removed from the actual events they summarize. Instead of actually seeing and judging the snap of a highly-touted pitcher's curveball or the sweep of a prospect's batting stroke, we must assess talent from a box score or a table of career accomplishments.
Scouting by effect, without reference to cause, is a tough way to judge any kind of talent, be it a spouse or a shortstop. Fantasy owners who hope to succeed by effectively judging -- note: not just buying -- the best talent must first properly interpret all that arcane information encoded in agate.
That's a tall order. Yes, various data sources and number-crunchers annually compile all sorts of statistical information to help poolsters shape incredibly-detailed profiles of each year's talent pool. And no, those sources are not nearly enough to cement your draft strategy, even though many are very good indeed. The serious poolster, the one intent on winning by truly knowing and appreciating all of the available talent, must go several steps further.
Any owner worth his or her intent to win must prepare for each season by physically creating their own statistical database, whether onto graph paper or within a computer spreadsheet. It's tedious and time-consuming, yes, but -- guess what? -- in doing the work yourself, by taking a close look at every player, you will begin to discern patterns and trends and actual indicators of talent. You will develop a precise sense of and feel for the numbers, and the players, that is impossible to gain any other way.
Start with hitters: you want to get a reasonable approximation of a player's ability to collect 'counters' in each of your league's scoring categories, calculate those performances per at bat, and project the numbers onto next season's expected playing time. You want to work your projections with at least three seasons' worth of numbers, more if you have them, and as you proceed you should mentally factor in the full range of variables that affect performance and playing time.
If you've left the work until too late in the spring to finish up before Opening Day, then turn to the projections compiled by Fantasy Baseball Index or other respected authorities. Your sense of players and talent will be lessened by not having done the number-crunching yourself, but at least you'll be working from anticipated achievement instead ofthe previous year's performances only, which is known as 'fighting the last war.'
What are you looking for? Your overall performance targets in mind, look first for extreme achievement - hitters who collect much more than their fair share of counters - especially from players at positions not generally known for high production. There are enough heavy hitters around to ensure every team can buy at least one, possibly two or maybe even three of the top 25 or 30. Key on the ones at positions with the least depth, on the understanding that Mike Piazza and an entry-level outfielder will outperform Ken Griffey and a bottom-feeding catcher almost every time.
Second, identify the 'spike' players with potential for strong performances in one or two categories only, like stolen bases or home runs. Owners who pass on Eric Young or Luis Castillo because they believe the relatively high price doesn't justify a lack of all-around help are missing the point: players who can can quickly close gaps in a category have a special value. Covet them accordingly.
Third, and most important of all, look for 'foundation' players, those with reasonable strength across each of the offensive categories, someone like OF Juan Encarnacion of Detroit. The numbers don't have to be extreme -- 15-70-70-15 is quite adequate -- but the power/speed and runs/RBIs splits should be roughly equivalent, and the player should have demonstrated an ability to consistently reach the levels you're seeking. These are building blocks that, bought cheaply enough, will be the mainstays of your team for years to come, while high-priced superstars come and go.
Finally, be sure to rank all of your players two ways: first by overall performance, and secondly by position. Your top priority must be to get more than your share of the players on the first list. Then, focus on acquiring players in the top third of the pool at each of the most productive positions. Miss on both counts and you may as well start playing for next year.
Next week, we'll look at evaluating pitching performances. If you have questions or comments in the meantime, please feel free to e-mail me.
Fantasy Baseball Index, March 16, 2001
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